when LTV is unknown
Customer lifetime value is not a metric to track. It is the input to every significant marketing allocation decision.
Acquisition budget allocated by CPA rather than LTV
A channel with a $40 cost per acquisition that produces customers with a $200 LTV is more valuable than a channel with a $30 CPA that produces customers with an $80 LTV. Optimizing for CPA without LTV data optimizes for the wrong metric. The cheaper-to-acquire customer is often worth less.
Product launches without repeat purchase data
A new product can have strong first-purchase metrics and weak repeat purchase performance — a combination that produces high initial revenue and poor long-term contribution. Without cohort data on repeat purchase rates by product, new launch decisions are based on first-purchase projections that may not reflect the product's actual customer value.
Retention investment not sized to the LTV opportunity
Email and loyalty program investment is often sized arbitrarily rather than against the LTV gap it is designed to close. If the cohort analysis shows that customers who make a second purchase within ninety days have twice the five-year LTV of customers who do not, the investment in driving second purchases within ninety days has a quantifiable ceiling.
for the decisions that require them.
Each analysis answers a different allocation question. Together they give the full picture of customer value by segment.
Acquisition Cohort Analysis
Customers grouped by acquisition month and tracked through their purchase history. Repeat purchase rate, time to second purchase, and revenue per cohort tracked over a defined lookback period. The cohort curves show how different acquisition months perform over time — and what is normal versus what needs attention.
LTV by Acquisition Channel
Lifetime value calculated for customers acquired through each channel: Amazon organic, Amazon advertising, Shopify paid social, email, and referral. The channel LTV comparison is the input to marketing budget allocation. It changes the advertising efficiency calculation from first-purchase CPA to lifetime value per dollar spent.
LTV by First Purchase Product
Lifetime value segmented by the first product a customer purchased. Different entry products produce different customer relationships. The product that produces the highest repeat purchase rate is worth more advertising support than its first-purchase revenue implies.
Repeat Purchase Trigger Analysis
Statistical analysis of what predicts a second purchase: category of first product, days since first purchase, and email engagement status. The trigger factors are the input to retention marketing timing and targeting.
Find the patterns. Apply to allocation.
Cohort analysis requires at least twelve to twenty-four months of transaction data to produce reliable patterns. The analysis is most valuable as a recurring review — not a one-time project.
Transaction Data Foundation
Customer transaction history pulled from Shopify (and Amazon where Brand Analytics data is available). Customer identities de-duplicated across channels where email matching is possible. Cohorts defined by acquisition month and acquisition channel.
LTV & Cohort Modeling
Twelve and twenty-four-month LTV calculated for each cohort segment. Repeat purchase curves plotted. Channel LTV comparison built. First-purchase product LTV comparison built. The model is delivered with confidence intervals, not just point estimates.
Allocation Recommendation
LTV analysis translated into specific allocation recommendations: which channels to increase, which products to prioritize in advertising, and what the retention investment ceiling is based on the LTV gap. Delivered as an action-oriented report, not just a data visualization.
for every significant marketing decision.
Every deliverable connects the LTV data to a specific allocation decision.
Monthly cohort curves showing repeat purchase rate and revenue by acquisition month.
Lifetime value comparison across acquisition channels with allocation implications.
First-purchase product LTV ranking with advertising allocation recommendations.
Statistical model of factors that predict a second purchase.
Updated cohort analysis delivered quarterly as new transaction data accumulates.
Customer transaction data flows through ARIA's reporting system for continuous cohort tracking.
Data Analytics & AI includes additional services that compound on this one.
Allocate to customers
by what they are worth
We work through referrals. If you have been referred, send us a message and we will estimate your current LTV by acquisition channel from your available transaction data.